Genoa vs Juventus
Our model puts a Juventus win at 53.1% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.93 to 1.61.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Juventus at 1.62, which implies about 61.7%. Our model has it at 53.1% — 8.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Juventus carry a rating of 1806 against 1615 for Genoa, a gap of 192 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Juventus's attack should find room against Genoa's defence, by 186 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Genoa struggles to hit the target: 23.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Juventus take 18 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.