Fluminense vs Internacional

Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 22:30

Win probability

53%

Fluminense wins

24%

Draw

23%

Internacional wins

xG Home

1.74

Fluminense

Blowout %

47%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.06

Internacional

Analysis

Our model puts a Fluminense win at 52.8% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.74 to 1.06.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1512 against 1494, a gap of 18 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

1.87

Fluminense

3.40

Draw

3.95

Internacional

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export