Dynamo Dresden vs Schalke 04
Our model puts a Dynamo Dresden win at 37.4% in this DFB-Pokal fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.18.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Behind the defence
76.4% of the shots on target Schalke 04 face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.