Cieza vs Granada
Our model puts a Granada win at 62.6% in this Copa del Rey fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.07 to 2.23.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1500 against 1529, a gap of 29 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Granada are on a run
Granada arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Finding the target
Granada struggles to hit the target: 28.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
71.4% of Granada's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 14 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.