Carrarese vs Arezzo
Our model puts a Carrarese win at 41.8% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.37 to 1.15.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Carrarese are off their season peak
Carrarese peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1435 today, 65 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Carrarese struggles to hit the target: 23.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Arezzo struggles to hit the target: 22.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
83.3% of Arezzo's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 6 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
56.7% of the shots on target Arezzo face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.