Badajoz vs Tenerife
Our model puts a Badajoz win at 48.6% in this Copa del Rey fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.62 to 1.13.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
Tenerife struggles to hit the target: 26.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Tenerife collect 3.7 cards a match, on 14.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
33.3% of Tenerife's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.