Anaitasuna vs Alavés
Our model puts an Alavés win at 60.8% in this Copa del Rey fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.01 to 2.06.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Alaves carry a rating of 1657 against 1510 for Anaitasuna, a gap of 147 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Alavés's attack should find room against Anaitasuna's defence, by 116 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
76.6% of the shots on target Alavés face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.