AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Our model puts an Aston Villa win at 39.9% in this EFL Cup fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.26 to 1.39.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price AFC Bournemouth at 2.15, which implies about 46.5%. Our model has it at 34% — 12.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Aston Villa's attack should find room against AFC Bournemouth's defence, by 100 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
AFC Bournemouth are on a run
AFC Bournemouth arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Early or late
41.2% of AFC Bournemouth's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.