Virtus Entella vs US Avellino
Our model puts a Virtus Entella win at 41.4% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.36 to 1.16.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 775 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Virtus Entella are off their season peak
Virtus Entella peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1408 today, 92 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Virtus Entella struggles to hit the target: 27.3% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.