VfL Bochum vs Mainz
Our model puts a Mainz win at 50.4% in this DFB-Pokal fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.08 to 1.65.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 641 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Mainz carry a rating of 1707 against 1546 for VfL Bochum, a gap of 160 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Mainz's attack should find room against VfL Bochum's defence, by 147 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Mainz take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
VfL Bochum collect 3.4 cards a match, on 13.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
60% of the shots on target Mainz face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.