Sporting de Alcázar vs Málaga

Tuesday, 27 October 2026 at 20:00

Win probability

26%

Sporting de Alcázar wins

24%

Draw

50%

Málaga wins

xG Home

1.20

Sporting de Alcázar

Blowout %

23%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.75

Málaga

Analysis

Our model puts a Málaga win at 49.9% in this Copa del Rey fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.2 to 1.75.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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