Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United
Our model puts a Sheffield Wednesday win at 38.6% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.21.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 775 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Cambridge United carry a rating of 1543 against 1441 for Sheffield Wednesday, a gap of 102 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Sheffield Wednesday are hard to beat
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Sheffield Wednesday are off their season peak
Sheffield Wednesday peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1441 today, 59 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.