Sassuolo vs Lazio
Our model puts a Lazio win at 51.2% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.07 to 1.67.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 641 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Sassuolo at 2.75, which implies about 36.4%. Our model has it at 24.3% — 12.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Lazio carry a rating of 1770 against 1636 for Sassuolo, a gap of 134 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lazio's attack should find room against Sassuolo's defence, by 132 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Lazio are on a run
Lazio arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 7 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Behind the defence
77.8% of the shots on target Lazio face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.