Padova vs Sudtirol
Our model puts a Padova win at 39.1% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.28 to 1.16.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 775 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Padova are off their season peak
Padova peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1414 today, 86 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Behind the defence
82.1% of the shots on target Sudtirol face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.