Oxford United vs Stockport County

Tuesday, 27 October 2026 at 19:45

Win probability

41%

Oxford United wins

27%

Draw

32%

Stockport County wins

xG Home

1.34

Oxford United

Blowout %

32%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.16

Stockport County

Analysis

Our model puts an Oxford United win at 40.8% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.34 to 1.16.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 775 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Stockport County are on a run

Stockport County arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 20 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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