Mantova vs Cremonese

Tuesday, 27 October 2026 at 19:00

Win probability

36%

Mantova wins

27%

Draw

37%

Cremonese wins

xG Home

1.21

Mantova

Blowout %

27%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.23

Cremonese

Analysis

Our model puts a Cremonese win at 36.8% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.21 to 1.23.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 775 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Cremonese's attack should find room against Mantova's defence, by 91 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Published 20 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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