Luton Town vs Doncaster Rovers

Tuesday, 27 October 2026 at 19:45

Win probability

54%

Luton Town wins

25%

Draw

22%

Doncaster Rovers wins

xG Home

1.67

Luton Town

Blowout %

46%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.96

Doncaster Rovers

Analysis

Our model puts a Luton Town win at 53.8% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.67 to 0.96.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 641 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

1.80

Luton Town

3.85

Draw

3.80

Doncaster Rovers

Published 20 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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