Leicester City vs Wigan Athletic
Our model puts a Leicester City win at 56.3% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.73 to 0.91.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.6% of the time — 389 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Leicester City are off their season peak
Leicester City peaked at 1581 this season and sit at 1528 today, 52 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
27.3% of Leicester City's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.