Hamburg SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Our model puts an Eintracht Frankfurt win at 40% in this DFB-Pokal fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.45.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 775 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack should find room against Hamburg SV's defence, by 167 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Hamburg SV are on a run
Hamburg SV arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Early or late
33.3% of Eintracht Frankfurt's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.