Gimnastica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa
Our model puts a Cultural Leonesa win at 49.1% in this Copa del Rey fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.38 to 1.9.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1494 against 1471, a gap of 23 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Cultural Leonesa collect 3.8 cards a match, on 14.9 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
77.8% of Cultural Leonesa's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 9 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
58.6% of the shots on target Cultural Leonesa face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.