FC Cologne vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Our model puts a 1. FC Union Berlin win at 39.7% in this DFB-Pokal fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.37.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 775 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, 1. FC Union Berlin's attack should find room against FC Cologne's defence, by 121 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
1. FC Union Berlin hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
75% of 1. FC Union Berlin's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.