Bradford City vs Peterborough United
Our model puts a Bradford City win at 58% in this EFL Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.73 to 0.84.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.6% of the time — 389 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Bradford City are hard to beat
Bradford City have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.