Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Karlsruher SC
Our model puts a Borussia Mönchengladbach win at 54.1% in this DFB-Pokal fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.67 to 0.95.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 641 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack should find room against Karlsruher SC's defence, by 152 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are off their season peak
Borussia Mönchengladbach peaked at 1639 this season and sit at 1586 today, 52 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Borussia Mönchengladbach collect 3.4 cards a match, on 11.4 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.