Benevento vs Catanzaro
Our model puts a Benevento win at 45.8% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.49 to 1.1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.4% of the time — 641 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Catanzaro's attack should find room against Benevento's defence, by 120 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Benevento are off their season peak
Benevento peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1439 today, 61 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Benevento struggles to hit the target: 26.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Benevento take 15.5 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
58.6% of the shots on target Catanzaro face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.