Alcalá vs Las Palmas

Tuesday, 27 October 2026 at 19:00

Win probability

16%

Alcalá wins

19%

Draw

66%

Las Palmas wins

xG Home

1.08

Alcalá

Blowout %

27%

Dominant win

xG Away

2.43

Las Palmas

Analysis

Our model puts a Las Palmas win at 65.8% in this Copa del Rey fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.08 to 2.43.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

How often they shoot

Las Palmas manage 9.8 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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