AIK vs IF Elfsborg
Our model puts an AIK win at 79.3% in this Swedish Allsvenskan fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.61 to 0.6.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,096 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 82.2% of the time — 73 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.2%, so the two are within 2.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 75%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.