Walsall vs Salford City

Monday, 26 October 2026 at 20:00

Win probability

38%

Walsall wins

27%

Draw

35%

Salford City wins

xG Home

1.29

Walsall

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.24

Salford City

Analysis

Our model puts a Walsall win at 37.9% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.29 to 1.24.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 767 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Walsall are hard to beat

Walsall have gone 13 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Published 19 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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