Tijuana vs Santos

Monday, 26 October 2026 at 03:00

Win probability

36%

Tijuana wins

25%

Draw

38%

Santos wins

xG Home

1.41

Tijuana

Blowout %

28%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.45

Santos

Analysis

Our model puts a Santos win at 38.4% in this Liga MX fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.41 to 1.45.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 767 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1506 against 1513, a gap of 8 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 19 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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