LAFC vs LA Galaxy

Monday, 26 October 2026 at 01:00

Win probability

47%

LAFC wins

24%

Draw

29%

LA Galaxy wins

xG Home

1.72

LAFC

Blowout %

48%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.30

LA Galaxy

Analysis

Our model puts a LAFC win at 46.9% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.72 to 1.3.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1496 against 1497, a gap of 0 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 19 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export