Galatasaray vs Fenerbahce
Our model puts a Galatasaray win at 48.2% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.63 to 1.15.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Galatasaray's attack should find room against Fenerbahce's defence, by 92 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Fenerbahce hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.3% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Galatasaray take 18.5 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Fenerbahce collect 3.2 cards a match, on 12 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.