FC Andorra vs Burgos
Our model puts a FC Andorra win at 37.5% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.18.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 767 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
FC Andorra hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
FC Andorra take 16.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
FC Andorra collect 3.4 cards a match, on 15.7 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
40% of Burgos's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 15 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
79.6% of the shots on target Burgos face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.