Coritiba vs Grêmio

Monday, 26 October 2026 at 22:30

Win probability

49%

Coritiba wins

25%

Draw

27%

Grêmio wins

xG Home

1.64

Coritiba

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.14

Grêmio

Analysis

Our model puts a Coritiba win at 48.7% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.64 to 1.14.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1487 against 1481, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 19 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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