Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) vs Vélez Sarsfield

Monday, 26 October 2026 at 00:30

Win probability

37%

Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) wins

25%

Draw

38%

Vélez Sarsfield wins

xG Home

1.40

Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero)

Blowout %

33%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.43

Vélez Sarsfield

Analysis

Our model puts a Vélez Sarsfield win at 38% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.4 to 1.43.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 767 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 19 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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