Boulogne vs Stade de Reims
Our model puts a Stade de Reims win at 51.9% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.99 to 1.63.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Stade Reims carry a rating of 1593 against 1437 for Boulogne, a gap of 156 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Boulogne's attack will struggle to break down Stade de Reims's defence, by 101 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Stade de Reims are hard to beat
Stade de Reims have gone 16 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Boulogne are off their season peak
Boulogne peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1437 today, 63 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Boulogne manage 8.8 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.