Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 00:30

Win probability

42%

Sporting Kansas City wins

25%

Draw

33%

Austin FC wins

xG Home

1.58

Sporting Kansas City

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.38

Austin FC

Analysis

Our model puts a Sporting Kansas City win at 42% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.58 to 1.38.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 767 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1458 against 1482, a gap of 25 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.10

Sporting Kansas City

3.75

Draw

2.85

Austin FC

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export