SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Our model puts a Bayern Munich win at 64.4% in this Bundesliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.93 to 2.14.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 379 fixtures in that band. That is 9.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Bayern Munich at 1.38, which implies about 72.5%. Our model has it at 64.4% — 8.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Bayern Munich carry a rating of 2015 against 1765 for SC Freiburg, a gap of 250 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Bayern Munich's attack should find room against SC Freiburg's defence, by 392 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
SC Freiburg are hard to beat
SC Freiburg have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Bayern Munich are off their season peak
Bayern Munich peaked at 2069 this season and sit at 2015 today, 54 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Bayern Munich hits the target more often than almost anyone: 39.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Bayern Munich take 21.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
71.1% of Bayern Munich's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 38 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target Bayern Munich face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.