Santos vs Bahia

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 00:00

Win probability

53%

Santos wins

24%

Draw

23%

Bahia wins

xG Home

1.71

Santos

Blowout %

40%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.04

Bahia

Analysis

Our model puts a Santos win at 52.8% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.71 to 1.04.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1513 against 1512, a gap of 2 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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