San Diego FC vs Seattle Sounders FC

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 02:30

Win probability

41%

San Diego FC wins

24%

Draw

35%

Seattle Sounders FC wins

xG Home

1.62

San Diego FC

Blowout %

41%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.47

Seattle Sounders FC

Analysis

Our model puts a San Diego FC win at 40.9% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.62 to 1.47.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 767 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1480 against 1487, a gap of 7 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.15

San Diego FC

3.70

Draw

2.85

Seattle Sounders FC

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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