River Plate vs Racing Club
Our model puts a River Plate win at 65% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.23 to 0.97.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 193 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1506 against 1482, a gap of 23 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.