Racing Genk vs Standard Liege

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 12:30

Win probability

54%

Racing Genk wins

25%

Draw

22%

Standard Liege wins

xG Home

1.64

Racing Genk

Blowout %

50%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.93

Standard Liege

Analysis

Our model puts a Racing Genk win at 53.7% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.64 to 0.93.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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