Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 03:00

Win probability

47%

Pumas UNAM wins

25%

Draw

28%

Tigres UANL wins

xG Home

1.58

Pumas UNAM

Blowout %

53%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.16

Tigres UANL

Analysis

Our model puts a Pumas UNAM win at 46.9% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.58 to 1.16.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1508 against 1506, a gap of 2 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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