Palermo vs Carrarese
Our model puts a Palermo win at 72.1% in this Serie B fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.18 to 0.64.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 193 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.6 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Palermo carry a rating of 1559 against 1435 for Carrarese, a gap of 124 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Palermo's attack should find room against Carrarese's defence, by 114 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Palermo are on a run
Palermo arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 10 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Carrarese are off their season peak
Carrarese peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1435 today, 65 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Carrarese struggles to hit the target: 23.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Palermo take 17.6 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 63.4%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.