Monterrey vs Guadalajara

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 00:00

Win probability

43%

Monterrey wins

26%

Draw

31%

Guadalajara wins

xG Home

1.46

Monterrey

Blowout %

38%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.19

Guadalajara

Analysis

Our model puts a Monterrey win at 43.1% in this Liga MX fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.46 to 1.19.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 767 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1510 against 1492, a gap of 17 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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