Lecce vs Juventus
Our model puts a Juventus win at 63.4% in this Serie A fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.79 to 1.91.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 379 fixtures in that band. That is 9.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Juventus at 1.42, which implies about 70.4%. Our model has it at 63.4% — 7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Juventus carry a rating of 1826 against 1582 for Lecce, a gap of 243 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lecce's attack will struggle to break down Juventus's defence, by 193 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Juventus take 18.4 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
75.7% of the shots on target Lecce face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.