KAA Gent vs Anderlecht

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:30

Win probability

32%

KAA Gent wins

26%

Draw

42%

Anderlecht wins

xG Home

1.27

KAA Gent

Blowout %

27%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.48

Anderlecht

Analysis

Our model puts an Anderlecht win at 42.1% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.48.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.7% of the time — 767 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

KAA Gent are on a run

KAA Gent arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 10 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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