Hull City vs Brentford
Our model puts a Brentford win at 59.7% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.9 to 1.88.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.9% of the time — 379 fixtures in that band. That is 9.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Brentford carry a rating of 1788 against 1581 for Hull City, a gap of 208 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Brentford's attack should find room against Hull City's defence, by 179 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target Brentford face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.