Goztepe vs Çorum FK

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:00

Win probability

54%

Goztepe wins

21%

Draw

25%

Çorum FK wins

xG Home

2.13

Goztepe

Blowout %

47%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.37

Çorum FK

Analysis

Our model puts a Goztepe win at 54.2% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 2.13 to 1.37.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1525 against 1512, a gap of 13 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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