GAIS vs IFK Göteborg

Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 13:00

Win probability

32%

GAIS wins

23%

Draw

45%

IFK Göteborg wins

xG Home

1.54

GAIS

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.86

IFK Göteborg

Analysis

Our model puts an IFK Göteborg win at 45.1% in this Swedish Allsvenskan fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.86.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 18 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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