Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Our model puts a Fortuna Sittard win at 53.2% in this Eredivisie fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.84 to 1.14.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1506 against 1486, a gap of 20 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Excelsior's attack should find room against Fortuna Sittard's defence, by 120 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.