FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
Our model puts a FC Dallas win at 53.7% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.79 to 1.08.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,054 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 623 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1526 against 1501, a gap of 25 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
San Jose Earthquakes are hard to beat
San Jose Earthquakes have gone 9 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 60.2%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.